AGC: Immigration Enforcement Hit Nearly 3 in 10 Construction Firms

Nearly three in ten construction firms in a fresh AGC–NCCER workforce survey said immigration enforcement hit them somehow in the past six months. For roofing owners already fighting craft shortages, that is not a politics story. It is a production and schedule story.

The numbers from July–August 2026

AGC and NCCER fielded the survey in July and August. About 1,830 respondents answered at least part of it. Seventy-one percent reported no effect. Of the rest:

• 16% said subcontractors lost workers
• 12% said workers left or no-showed because of actual or rumored enforcement
• 6% said agents visited a jobsite or off-site location

Region mattered hard. AGC chief economist Ken Simonson said at a Sept. 3 briefing that 42% of Southern respondents were affected, versus 37% in the Northeast, 22% in the West, and 17% in the Midwest. Roofing shops heavy on Gulf and Southeast storm corridors should treat the South number as their baseline risk, not the national average.

What the survey did not prove

Simonson told Roofing Contractor that hard proof tying enforcement to specific delay costs is still mostly anecdotal. Homebuilders are seeing schedule breaks when framing or concrete crews vanish after a rumor. Larger multifamily and nonresidential GCs can sometimes reshuffle. Mission-critical work with no float — data centers, tight commercial roofs — cannot afford a lost day.

Separately, the same survey wave shows the labor floor you already know: 87% of firms have openings for hourly craft workers, 88% of those say filling them is as hard or harder than a year ago, and 42% say workforce shortages delayed projects — the top delay cause named. The survey did not pin that 42% only on immigration. Skills gaps, no-shows after hire, and missing licenses still dominate.

What shops should do Monday

• Map which trades on your schedule are single-threaded (tear-off, torch, TPO weld, framing partners). Build a backup bench before a rumor empties a day.
• Keep I-9 and E-Verify hygiene boring and current. Panic paperwork after a visit is how you compound a labor hit with a compliance hit.
• Talk to your H-2B or other visa counsel now about FY timing, not after a second-half cap closes. Cap math has bitten seasonal roofing for years running.
• Fund the slow pipeline: apprenticeships, manufacturer academies, and returning veterans. AGC is explicit that training takes years — which is why you start this quarter, not “after storm season.”
• If you rely on a single sub for Spanish-speaking production crews, you do not have a crew strategy. You have a concentration risk.

Seventy-one percent felt nothing. The shops that get hurt are the ones with no second crew when the first one disappears for a week.

The Ridge Report take: enforce the law and staff the roofs are both real. Owners who only complain about one side will still miss squares. Dual-track — legal workforce channels plus domestic training — is the boring answer that keeps trucks rolling.

Figures from the AGC–NCCER July–August 2026 workforce survey as reported by Roofing Contractor (Sept. 4, 2026) and Simonson’s Sept. 3 briefing.